In this post, we assess the credibility of Ruiyong's long run workout in possibly arming him with the physical tools to handle a 2:18 marathon. We will again be using the Renato Canova Model to 'judge'.
On the 13th of February, in the midst of Chinese New Year week celebrations in Singapore, over in Kenya, Ruiyong did a 28km long run in 2 hours flat at 7800ft or 2400m of altitude. He probably finished that run feeling upbeat for reasons understandable--his long drawn plantar fasciitis injury that bothered him ever since November didn't seem to act up on him throughout the entire run, or entire kenyan stint thus far. I'm honestly stoked for him if he has turned that corner, but I cannot say the same about that long run he did. To be fair, he had only arrived 12 days into his kenyan adventure, and was probably still in the process of adjusting to the altitude, food, culture, kinda orienteering his senses in a way as well. But let's get to the analysis of that workout right here.
The average pace per km of that workout turns out to be 4:17 per km, upon some rounding. Per mile would be 6:53, upon some rounding as well. Let's now apply the Canova model for some much needed insight into the significance of these numbers. For one, all of you remembered in my previous post dated 3rd March the issue about the importance of TRANSFERABILITY of any Canova workout, and we will again be touching on this issue in the long run workout because all of the model can be distilled down to this core principle. Any Canova fan would know, long runs in the Canova model vary from exactly 28km to as much as 45km, and for very good reason. The marathon is a long race and therefore one has to obviously train for close to just as long! But what about overdistance work of 45km, what is the purpose of that? I shall not touch on that here because Ruiyong didn't do overdistance work and therefore an explanation for that would be out of point with what he has done and what we want to analyse! Canova says that long runs started from a minimum of 28km, which Ruiyong did, must be anywhere from 90-95 percent of goal marathon pace. Supposing we use the less punishing 90 percent of goal marathon pace for our purposes, and knowing that Ruiyong's supposed target of 2:18:45 is about 5:17 per mile, then 90 percent of 5:17 is about 5:49 per mile. But we have to take into account altitude adjustment for 7800ft which adds another approximately 14 seconds to 5:49 so that we get 6:03 per mile. But Ruiyong also claims often the terrain in Iten ranges from being moderately hilly, to rolling, to really hilly, so let us give him a combine benefit of the doubt of about 10-15 seconds per mile, so that the required pace per mile for his long run should be 6:15-6:17, TO MAXIMIZE TRANSFERABILITY!
Can anybody tell the difference between Ruiyong's average mile splits of 6:53 and the required mile splits of 6:15-617? That is an astronomical difference, though I might be guilty of some hyperbole here as a result of my incredulity. What then is Ruiyong doing in Kenya if he isn't trying to maximize transferability in his long runs, the single most important aspect of any marathon training, more important than even doing those 'incredible' mile and km intervals he did last week? One could bat an eyelid and pretend nothing was wrong when he coudn't run those incredible fast recovery intervals of 3:48 per km during his tempo intervals work last week, but surely nobody can sit by and think nothing of something that is so blatantly out of place in the Canova model, like me! Already the training at altitude slows down the turnover of a distance athlete's legs by a lot, by virtue of having to run slower, in this case 6:17 instead of 5:49. The slower paces are already an inherent handicap and therefore negates the goal of training the muscles and fibers in the legs to snap in and out quick. 3 types of fibers exist in the muscles--slow, fast and a combination of slow-fast. It is these fibers in the 3rd group that will possibly lose alot of stimuli by virtue of altitude training done poorly, resulting in what would be an overbearing percentage of slow fibers any elite marathon individual dreads, if he/she is looking for a fast time relative to his personal best, and Ruiyong is totally looking for a time so fast that IT IS OUT OF THIS WORLD WITH REGARDS TO HIS PRESENT CONDITIONS GIVEN HIM BY HIS PERSONAL BESTS OF 14:58, 31:15, AND 67:22.
Let's look at Ruiyong's next long run dated 20th March, a 30km run on what he claimed to be a pretty hilly profile in total time of 127minutes. That is about 4:14 per km with rounding, and then about 6:49 per mile also with rounding. We again find the same problem---6:15-6:17 is the required pace per mile for best practices and maximum transferability. 6:49 is still an astronomical distance away. Could it be he hadn't adjusted completely to the 7800ft of altitude yet? Unlikely given he was already 3 weeks into his training stint, and this would be the 3rd time he has been at altitude. He even had prepatory doses of altitude whilst in Singapore in the altitude chamber of Sports Institute. He couldn't have been more prepared? Could it then be the plantar injury that might have prevented him from making up the huge deficit from 6:49 to 6:15? According to him, he is done and over with his plantar issues, so unless he is bullshitting every one of us, then, I can find no reason why Ruiyong is seemingly not training in the way one would expect a good elite runner would---which is to maximize transferability! Could it be his coach Ian Dobson have no idea about transferability, or worst, not even a clue about the existence of a far more effective (though not necessarily superior) method of training his athlete who is already good enough to be on a Canova program? Because a good while ago back in October 2015 Ruiyong had actually ran a long run workout at 5:50 per mile pace, which is around exactly the 90% goal pace marker of 5:49(for 2:18:45), in which he claimed to be tempted to speed up to 5:30s every once in a while to indulge his flesh, but was later rebuked by Ian himself driving in a car beside him, telling him to stick to 5:50 per mile. Surely a qualified coach like Ian must know what he is doing with Ruiyong, and I wouldn't want to second-guess or third-guess that, especially now that Ruiyong is looking to not only break Singapore's national record, but totally annihilate it into 2:18 so that you can be sure no Singaporean athlete in a half century or more is ever going to break it.
All in all, 3 months out from the London marathon, and Ruiyong with his coach isn't even doing the most basic aspect of all marathon training right, ACCORDING TO THE HIGH PROBABILITY CANOVA MODEL! How could he ever run his recovery/rest intervals at 3:48 per km in a set of 1km x 12 at an average of 3:15 per km, or in a set of 1600x8 at an average of 3:18 per km without the strong aerobic base that can only come by DOING THE LONG RUN WORKOUT THE PROPER WAY(CANOVA WAY!)? Ergo, how could he ever even fathom, together with his coach, to want to run 2:18:45 and change in London marathon in April and in the future marathon races towards Tokyo 2020? To proceed from where his at running 5min/km for his recovery intervals(fitness of 2:26:01 pb) to the fitness of being able to execute a 3:48 per km(fitness for 2:18:45pb) recovery interval doesn't take only 4 years. In all my years of experience whether as a fan, consultant, or advisor of distance training and racing, the amount of time cannot even be quantified or qualified! For the record, I have mentioned in my first post dated 1st of March as well, that THERE IS PROBABLY NO AMOUNT OF TIME(READ INFINITE TIME, WHICH DOESN'T EXIST!) FOR WHICH RUIYONG WILL EVER QUALIFY FOR AN OLYMPIC GAMES MARATHON, BY ALL THE CONDITIONS STATED THEREIN WITHIN THAT POST HERE BELOW.
http://veryslimchance.blogspot.sg/2016/03/this-is-post-in-reply-to-ruiyongs.html
Do we still wish him all the best in his delusion? That is the paradox for one--me extremely captivated fan of distance, I presume............
Feel free to provide some comments please.
In our next post, we examine the volume of Ruiyong's track workout so far...
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