https://www.facebook.com/sporeathletics/

This is a post in reply to Ruiyong's facebook reply to Lexxus Tan and not meant to side with anybody whether Ruiyong or Lexxus.  Website is listed above (and article is the one on "Soh targets London Marathon for passport to Rio Games". Excerpts of conversation has been reproduced at the bottom of the page.) This is a post meant to present the facts of Ruiyong's potential with regards to qualifying for Rio, and comparing it to well-accepted and rigorously assessed and therefore thoroughly and absolutely reliable trends in the world of distance running--the marathon. (ie, I am doing this as objectively as possible, without having any bias on either side of the fence! I have no sinister or non sinister reason whatsoever to 'put down' Ruiyong's ability and achievements, because I am able to simply and objectively vouch for the facts and trends.)

A word about my credentials is I have none. I am not a fanatic distance runner, and I dun  run as often as I would like but still do run moderately, but I am a fanatic fan of Kenenisa Bekele and Zersenay Tadesse and have followed their progress as athletes from way back in 2000 when Paul Tergat and Haile Gebrselassie was still around competing hard. In the SEA region, I have followed the careers of Boonthung Srisung and Eduardo Buenovista also since early 2000s and recently followed Agus Prayogo on instagram, and i love to compare all their running careers, training and performance to each other. In the Asian region, I am a fanatic fan of Toshinari takaoka, also from way back in the 2000s, long before Yuki Kawauchi(an athlete I totally abhor due to his very warped idea of training and racing and therefore a poor example for any young athlete to follow). These are my 'credentials', so correct me if I'm wrong about a historical fact I write below in reply to Ruiyong's facebook reply to Lexxus. If it is a matter of difference of opinion you have with me, it will be pretty clear to the both of us later and we should agree to disagree.

Ruiyong had an issue with Lexxus when he said "I wonder what will be the outcome if Agus Prayogo ran the Sea Games last year."



One can sense that Lexxus obviously and accidentally missed typing the word 'marathon' after the word 'games'. A runner of Lexxus stature(one of singapore's best ultra marathon runners ever together with fabian williams from fwcc) would obviously know what or who the man Agus Prayogo is, as would 95 percent of anybody in the distance running community who takes running more than a little seriously and follows trends and athletes as well as running news. Ergo, Lexxus obviously would know Agus ran the 5k and 10k last year at the sea games and he was questioning instead whether the outcome of the sea games marathon would be different HAD AGUS RAN IT!

My take on this is: Nothing is for sure, nothing is guaranteed, but and here's the thing Agus had personal best times in the 10k so fast he would have made our sea games marathon gold medallist look not only mediocre, but extremely mediocre, an afterthought. 29:25 10k in 2010. While having never ran a truly proper half marathon race with maximum effort in the best and coolest climate possible, Agus only has a mediocre half marathon pb of 67:20, which is exactly Ruiyong's half marathon pb. One would imagine how a man so fast at 10k and 5k as well(14:02) can only manage a such a slow half marathon? The secret was Agus never really attempted an all-out half marathon in cool weather, and had he done so earlier on, the protracted result and a very good estimate would be in the region of high 64 to low 65. You can say with 99.9 percent certainty with little room for error that Agus will fall within this region of time range or faster! So with such immensely superb times at 5k 10k and half marathon, if Agus had trained well and moved up to the marathon for real in June last year, he would have taken the scalp of Ruiyong, without a shadow of doubt. Agus also has age factor going for him, being only about 30 years of age last year. Whereas Eduardo Buenavista the fastest SEA marathon runner in history with 2:18:44 was already 37 last year, and ran that time 12 years ago! Which means that time is as good as defunct in current era. Eduardo wasn't the same runner he was 12 years ago, when he was 25, which is currently Ruiyong's age this year 2016. Ruiyong didn't beat a runner that was firing on all cylinders, and there was no glory, as anybody keen enough to observe the finer details, in beating one who is a shadow of his former self. Eduardo though still ran a pretty respectable time in SEA last year with 2:24:12, but that is an astronomical distance away from 2:18:44, justifying the appearance of him being a shadow of his former self. Recent 10k and half marathon performances by him have also been extremely slow, with him clocking, according to adriansprints and a number of other results sources a 10k track time of only 31-32 flat last year and the year before, and half marathon of only 1:09-1:10. We might not know the goal of these races of his, but if we try to use it to assess current form and ability, he is obviously not firing on the level of his former self 10-15 years ago. That leaves only Agus, the only active distance runner who is firing on all cylinders and had he trained and ran the marathon last year, would have obviously beaten Ruiyong in any type of race, fast slow or tactical. Agus potential in the marathon has been unveiled AS EVIDENCE for all to see in Tokyo this past weekend, when, according to live race video was stuck at the back of the pack for the first 2-3km and had to spent a huge amount of energy accelerating hard after the 2nd km to get to the front of elite field because he wasn't assigned an elite status, inducing alot of unnecessary lactate in his blood and he still ran 2:23:04 slowing down dramatically in the last 7km as result of spending so much energy making up lost time, and thrashing singapore's national record easily. Without these unfortunate events, Agus would actually be running much faster in the region of 2:21. Is there any reason to doubt that Agus would not ordinarily win the marathon race last year without much fanfare, because it is 99.9 percent expected of a runner of such genius caliber? There is only 1 reason--that is anything can happen on race day, and it would take a severe illness or injury, or a car accident during the race to eliminate Agus completely from the race and give Ruiyong the smooth path to victory. Faced with these facts, there is little to argue about that Ruiyong had been very fortunate to win gold last year, in the absence of Agus, and given a battle-weary and worn runner in Eduardo Buenavista as competitor.

The next statement Ruiyong had an issue with Lexxus was this : "There is no miracle in running and is a long long long way to go for Asian athletes to meet Olympic marathon qualifying time."

Ruiyong disagrees but maybe he isn't sure what he is writing or saying either. So let me help by first saying-- A miracle is defined as some event, with regards to distance running performances, that is hardly ever at all expected to occur given the constraints of time and other types of resources like talent, training and other ability. First let us start by analysing ruiyong's highschool talents. As much as he ran hard trained hard under former highschool coach Mr Steven Quek with decent mileage of 60km comparable to any highschooler kid in America, Canada Britain or Japan, he only managed personal bests of 5k and 10k at the end of highschool (18-19 years of age) of 16:03 and 34:42 respectively. He wasn't sleeping on a couch potato running these times, he was working his ass off probably harder than any high school kid in the world in terms of effort and discipline. One can ask any reasonable distance running coach or guru with no vested interest in Ruiyong's future--- if coming out of high school with these mediocre times he can be TOP TEN MARATHON OLYMPICS BY TOKYO 2020(in the words of Ruiyong). The answer is very clear NO. Ruiyong is obviously applying total hyperbole to both his Rio and Tokyo social media and marketing campaign because even way speedier 15:00 5k and 31:00 10k American kids out of highschool like perhaps Shadrack Biwott, Jacob Riley, and Elkanah Kibet who turned professional in the USA a couple of years back can't even get into the top 3 in the USA olympic marathon trials last month to qualify for olympics, much less trying to be top ten at the olympics. If these pros who were once very speedy kids can't even get into the olympics, how could Ruiyong, not a pro and not speedy like them as a kid get into an olympics and worst, be top ten in a field of runners dominated by almost all africans. Top ten at every championships since 2004 or 2005 has been dominated by athletes of AFRICAN DESCENT! These athletes were kids who were once even speedier than those kids Shadrack Biwott, Jacob Riley, and Elkanah Kibet!
Is a miracle happening such that Ruiyong will in 4 sweet and short years be running marathons in the sub 2:10 region to challenge for top ten Tokyo olympics? NOPE! Any reasonable and objective distance running coach or guru with no vested interest or relationship with Ruiyong will probably say that. In fact, there is no amount of time for which he will one day become a sub 2:10 marathon runner to challenge for top ten in tokyo. Ruiyong will age, and can only get slower, not faster, like how eduardo buenavista and soon Agus Prayogo will also, and he doesn't have a infinite fountain of youth to keep improving without the effects of age and free radicals due to oxidative stress from distance running.

The second part of the statement tackles Asian athletes, but Lexxus must have again accidentally messed up his intended word--SOUTH-EAST ASIANS. If South east asians is the word, then it is true(and how could a very experienced and by corollary knowledgeable ultra runner not know that Japanese and Koreans were very good marathoners in history past?) that SEA runners have a long long long way to go to olympic qualification. The only sub 2:20 runners in SEA history are Eduardo Nabunome of Indonesia 2:19:18 and Eduardo Buenavista of Phillipines 2:18:44. Both of these guys were sub 15min 5k and sub 32 minutes 10k runners out of highschool, far ahead of Ruiyong when he was in highschool, and Nabunome wouldn't qualify for the marathon by today's standards, and buenavista will have just scrapped by qualification. Both of these cases, as well as the examples of american runners provided above, and even many more examples I cannot provide due to space and time limitations on this blog, shows you the standards one must have coming out of highschool, REGARDLESS OF TYPE OF TRAINING. All training for teenagers administered by knowledgeable and vested youth distance coaches are not very event specific as a teenager is still growing, so training at such ages should still be very general and conservative, with slight adjustment for culture, talent and other mental and emotional aptitudes, and whatever results from these conservative but hard, serious, and dedicated training such as the personal best times at the end of 18-19 years of age are very good indicators, or yardsticks of olympic potential in any distance event. Again I have no reason to put down Ruiyong's talent or achievements, because I am fully able to simply, totally, and objectively as possible vouch for the facts and trends. In any case, korean and Japanese athletes are no longer as competitive as they once were 2 decades and more back. If Ruiyong says that Asian athletes are still dominating the world championships and olympics for marathon, he probably doesn't mean it!

Finally Ruiyong has an issue with the statement "athletes should take things step by step and be more realistic"

Dear Ruiyong, I am no coach, but if a prestigious ultra coach like Lexxus could spend time writing that statement for you, and if you haven't had a feud with him in any moment of history before, then you can be pretty sure that this coach is probably exercising his coaching instincts to care, love and concern for not only his athletes but those outside his purview! Whoever told you that you can chop more than 7minutes from your 2:26:01 might probably have such a vested interest in your running career that even he/she is tempted and deceived into the lure of quick success, and quick because you are trying in less than 6 months since your precarious plantar injury to chop off those minutes, and this act of yours stinks of desperation, unprofesionalism and foremost of INSECURITY! Are you afraid you aren't going to make it or be around when Tokyo  2020 rolls around due to some feared consequence like injury or marriage/kids. And office work as civil servant as well? If you do have this fear, deal with it and don't try to rush your success story with Rio. You don't have the personal bests times at 5k 10k and half marathon to tackle a sub 2:19 marathon, you also don't have the CONSISTENT BLOCK of physical conditioning required so soon after a torrid plantar injury that probably was also brought about by your desire to rush your success for Rio. Haven't you heard of the saying "if something is too good to be true(ie going from 2:26 to 2:18), then it probably is". That means, brother, if a miracle happens and you do indeed run in the region of 2:18 to qualify for Rio and become the fastest SEA marathon runner with literally the slowest 5k 10k and half marathon pbs ever, we might suspect you to be on drugs, since it must be too good to be true to chop that amount of time in less than 6 months, AND COMING OFF AN IMPOSSIBLE PLANTAR INJURY. I like to believe, no matter how hard it is for me, a reasonable and knowledgeable fan of distance running, that you might still be able to run a 2:18 in tokyo, though I stand absolutely by my belief, that no amount of training, time, energy, science and other resources is going to get you into the top ten in the marathon in 2020. Period.The latter part of my previous sentence stands as opinion per se, but has been well supported by a combination of rigorous historical trends and facts, with very little deviation, and can be taken as good as fact. The probability of you becoming top ten olympics in tokyo exists, but only much less than 1 percent, by me. The probability of you becoming a 2:18 runner by tokyo 2020 also exists, slightly higher, by me at 5 percent. Please understand that these are still very extremely low odds, statistically, and mathematically becomes approximated as zilch(zero).

Finally please note that Lexxus isn't such a bad character shooting you down, because he, like I and definitely many more, feel like something is out of norm in a worrisomely selfish and deluded way. It's all about you and your Rio goal at all costs even with very low probability of success, kinda a very real delusion we are looking at right now. You have so many other opportunity costs of your time and energy that will give you a better probability of success on your investment as a result of your higher education. People like Lexxus care about you, and probably can give you the most objective advice barring the lack of the ability of expressing himself well in the English language, because he doesn't have vested interest or any relationship with you, like I do as well. There are many more out there that oppose your actions and decisions, and that is normally normal, and so you have to make sense of which ones you should seriously consider, and you should start with this post and Lexxus.


Anybody feel free to comment and reply.

Excerpts of conversation
Lexus Tan I strongly think our young talented athletes must take thing step by step and be more realistic. Marathon running involves a long training process and a good foundation must be developed from young.
There is no miracle in running and is a long long long way to go for Asian athletes to meet Olympic marathon qualifying time.

I wonder what will be the outcome if Agus Prayogo ran the Sea Game last year. (complete Tokyo marathon last Sunday in *2:23:29hr; 10km PB: 29:25min; **21km PB : 1:07:17hr)

Below is extract from : AdrianSprints

TOKYO Marathon 2016 (28 Feb) - Southeast Asian Results -

Indonesia's AGUS PRAYOGO set the fastest Southeast Asian 42K time in 10 years with 2:23:29 ... Thailand's Jirasak Suthichart ran 2:23:23 in January 2006.

MEN
62 ... Agus Prayogo (INA) 2:23:29 ... (1:10:41)
128 ... Kuniaki 'Neko' Takizaki (CAM) 2:32:12 ... (1:13:39)
200 ... Fang Jian Yong (SIN) 2:36:56 ... (1:15:35)
264 ... Mohammed Syahidan Alias (MAS) 2:39:09 ... (1:17:28)
404 ... Derek Shian Li (SIN) 2:44:22 ... (1:22:09)

WOMEN
70 ... Rachel See (SIN) 3:02:26 ... (1:29:43)
85 ... Qi Hui Date (SIN) 3:04:22 ... (1:29:45)
171 ... Baoying Lim (SIN) 3:14:24 ... (1:36:54)

*half marathon time in bracket


Soh Rui Yong Lexus Tan,

"I wonder what will be the outcome if Agus Prayogo ran the Sea Game last year."

Agus did run the SEA Games last year. He won silver in the 5000m and gold in the 10000m. Were you even watching? And for the record, Agus' marathon personal best then was 2:32. The fastest runner in the field was Eduardo Buenavista with 2:18. There's a reason Agus ran on the track and not in the marathon. If you're trying the undermine the results of last year's SEA Games marathon medalists, please try a lot harder than that.

"There is no miracle in running and is a long long long way to go for Asian athletes to meet Olympic marathon qualifying time."

Disagree. Miracles happen to those who work hard enough and believe. Asia comprises of many countries with strong distance runners like Japan, Korea and China. They all have athletes at Olympic standard. Ser-Od Bat Ochir from Mongolia is Asian. He has an Olympic standard. Korea and Japan went gold and silver in the 1992 Barcelona Olympics. So I don't understand where you are getting all your facts from when you made that statement.

For the record, "After Kenya, for sure I'm confident of meeting the Olympic mark" was not exactly what I said. I simply said "for sure (I am MORE confident). Newspapers quote you slightly different sometimes. Deal with it and move on.

Finally, I agree with your point that "our young talented athletes must take thing step by step and be more realistic". At the same time, I think some "coaches" need to focus more time on coaching and less time on undermining their fellow Singaporeans on Facebook. As a coach, guide more athletes to SEA Games medals, rather than trying to shoot down athletes going for bigger things.

You seem to have a lot of beliefs. How many SEA Games medals has that won you?

Have a good day. smile emoticon

*Guntime is 2:23:29 but Net-time is 2:23:04 for Agus in the Tokyo marathon.
**Agus half marathon pb is inaccurate given his superb ability at 5k , 10k and now the full marathon. Pace calculators on reputable websites put Agus in the region of 65:00 equivalent based on 10k of 29:25